Western States Showdown

The 36th annual Western States 100 is this Saturday. For those of you new to the sport, this is the event that literally started it all – the very first 100 mile trail race (when Gordy Ainsleigh entered the horse race on foot). It has the most history, an excellent course, and by far the best competition of any 100 miler (with the possible exception of the UTMB).

Speaking of competition …

THE MEN

Scott Jurek is back.  The 7-time winner and CR holder (15:36:27) returns to the race he has never lost. Dave Mackey is back.  He returns the only 100 he’s ever tried – from 2004 when he pushed Scott to the CR. Hal Koerner is back, after winning in 2007. The list goes on, but with no disrespect to the other excellent runners, this is enough.

So who’s going to win?

Scott – Like Lance Armstrong, Scott is always perfectly prepared, never having bad races or even patches at States, brilliantly delivering an unmarred 100% effort on race day. Also like the 7-time Tour de France Champion, he is a good tactician, who makes the competition come to him and run his race. Very unlike Lance however, Scott really isn’t that strong of a pure runner. Fabulous in preparation, tactics, long distances, and heat, he is quite vulnerable at anything less than 100 miles.

Dave on June 11

Dave – Rules under 100 miles, down to the 50k. And he’s a top adventure racer, used to going for days, so even though this is his second 100, there’s no doubt he can go the distance. Interesting to think about, huh? Dave is looking very strong this year on his short distance training program, pounding out some PR’s with the local boyz up the summits above his home in Boulder. He’s dropped some weight as he’s climbing a lot less, and probably will skip leading 5.10 routes in Toulemne Meadows the day before the race like he was doing in 2004.

Other – WS100 was going to be the race where Tony Krupicka went head-head with the best and really threw it down. Everyone, especially he, was looking forward to it. However, last year’s event was cancelled and Tony had a knee injury this spring, so 2009 will be a showdown of the old guard – the names on most people’s top ten lists have all been winners for years. Five years ago it was Jurek – Mackey – Koerner – Skaden … sound familiar?

Prognosis – Never bet against anyone who is 7 wins in 7 tries. Scott is capable of opening an unclosable gap in the third quarter of the race. Yet if Dave can eat, drink, keep his stomach good, and stay within sight of Scott during the heat of the day, it will be another game when the sun gets low. If they are together with 10-20 miles to go, it will be difficult for Scott to keep up in a run to the finish.

Current interviews with Scott and Dave on Runners World here.

States is run very professionally for an ultra race; a big plus is the live webcast here.

WS100 is part of Montrail Ultra Cup, but after a few minutes on their website, I couldn’t figure out what they were talking about, who was ahead, or what the purported prize money is, so I gave up.

Anita June 20

THE WOMEN

Who would bet against Nikki Kimball? Who wouldn’t be delighted if Krissy Moehl did great? Who doesn’t know that Anita Ortiz is in only her 2nd year of ultrarunning but for years was by far the best female mountain runner in the country?

There’s lots of terrific women in this event, as usual, but lacking good insider info, I don’t know what else to say, so I won’t.

Except: Should be really good.